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Global demographic change and its implications for military power

Global demographic change and its implications for military power

Libicki, Martin C; Shatz, Howard J; Taylor, Julie E., 1968-

What is the impact of demographics on the prospective production of military power and the causes of war? This monograph analyzes this issue by projecting working-age populations through 2050; assessing the influence of demographics on manpower, national income and expenditures, and human capital; and examining how changes in these factors may affect the ability of states to carry out military missions. It also looks at some implications of these changes for other aspects of international security. The authors find that the United States, alone of all the large affluent nations, will continue to see (modest) increases in its working-age population thanks to replacement-level fertility rates and a likely return to vigorous levels of immigration. Meanwhile, the working-age populations of Europe and Japan are slated to fall by as much as 10 to 15 percent by 2030 and as much as 30 to 40 percent by 2050. The United States will thus account for a larger percentage of the population of its Atlantic and Pacific alliances; in other words, the capacity of traditional alliances to multiply U.S. demographic power is likely to decline, perhaps sharply, through 2050. India's working-age population is likely to overtake China's by 2030. The United States, which has 4.7 percent of the world's working-age population, will still have 4.3 percent by 2050, and the current share of global gross domestic product accounted for by the U.S. economy is likely to stay quite high

eBook, Paperback, Electronic resource, Book. English. Electronic books.
Published Santa Monica, CA : RAND 2011

This resource is available electronically from the following locations


Statement of responsibility: Martin C. Libicki, Howard J. Shatz, Julie E. Taylor
ISBN: 0833052454, 0833052470, 9780833052452, 9780833052476
Note: Includes bibliographical references (pages 131-141).
Note: Print version record.
Physical Description: 1 online resource (xxviii, 141 pages) : color illustrations.
Series: Rand Corporation monograph series ; MG-1091-AF
Subject: Balance of power Forecasting.; United States Population Forecasting.; United States. Armed Forces Manpower Forecasting.; HISTORY Military Other.; TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING Military Science.; United States Military policy Forecasting.; SOCIAL SCIENCE Demography.
Series Title: Rand Corporation monograph series ; MG-1091-AF.
Local note: JSTOR Books at JSTOR Open Access


  1. Introduction
  2. Numbers
  3. Long-term trends in national GDP
  4. The economic burden of aging populations
  5. The influence of demographics on the causes of war
  6. The impact of demographic trends on military power projection
  7. Implications.