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Whither al-Anbar Province?: five scenarios through 2011

Whither al-Anbar Province?: five scenarios through 2011

Bruce, James B; Martini, Jeffrey

The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq will create a vacuum in the way security is achieved and power is exercised throughout Iraq. As U.S. Marines draw down in al-Anbar Province, significant changes can be expected throughout the province in security, political, economic, and even cultural relationships. In late 2008, RAND convened a series of three one-day workshops bringing together civilian and military analysts and practitioners with experience on al-Anbar Province or comparable expertise on Iraq. Workshops participants identified five relatively distinct futures, or scenarios, for al-Anbar that provide plausible but alternative trajectories for the province between early 2009 and the end of 2011. These scenarios resulted from extensive consideration of the major assumptions that may underlie any future projections and the testing of those assumptions in a variety of exercises. The deliberations also focused on the major factors that will shape the development of one or another scenario

eBook, Electronic resource, Book. English. Electronic books. Conference papers and proceedings.
Published Santa Monica, CA : RAND 2010

This resource is available electronically from the following locations


Statement of responsibility: James B. Bruce, Jeffrey Martini
ISBN: 0833050818, 9780833048035, 9780833050816
Note: Print version record.
Note: Includes bibliographical references.
Physical Description: 1 online resource (xiii, 12 pages).
Series: Occasional paper ; OP-278-MCIA
Subject: Politics and government Forecasting.; United States.; Social change.; Economic history Forecasting.; Disengagement (Military science) Congresses.; HISTORY Middle East General.; Social history Forecasting.; Iraq War (2003-2011); Influence (Literary, artistic, etc.); HISTORY General.; Iraq War, 2003-2011 Influence Congresses.; Social prediction.; Iraq.; Disengagement (Military science)
Series Title: Occasional paper (Rand Corporation) ; OP-278-MCIA.
Local note: JSTOR Books at JSTOR Open Access


  1. Executive summary
  2. What does the future hold for Iraq's al-Anbar Province?
  3. How this study was conducted
  4. Implications
  5. Major takeaways
  6. Study approach
  7. Assumptions
  8. Drivers
  9. Scenario A: Sunni fight for survival
  10. Scenario B: Every clan for itself
  11. Scenario C: Iron fist
  12. Scenario D: Glueless in Baghdad
  13. Scenario E: Path to stability
  14. The importance of drivers
  15. Indications and warnings
  16. Conclusions and implications.